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Kenpom says....
Farmdude Offline
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Kenpom says....
It's the Cards in 2017 if Nanu comes back.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketba...preseason/
03-20-2016 08:55 PM
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CardsAllDay13 Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
see: Tidbits
03-20-2016 08:59 PM
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Red Alert Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
IMO this actually deserves its own thread.
03-20-2016 09:03 PM
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DieHardCards Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
Sigh.
03-20-2016 09:12 PM
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DieHardCards Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
At least you guys are talking about basketball. I would rather listen to uk fans talk about next years football team than the steaming pile of shit in random whatever.
03-20-2016 09:14 PM
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Red Alert Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
JMO, but I really don't care for the tidbits thread. Sure there are alot of things that don't deserve their own thread. But theres plenty of things mentioned in there that do. It runs counter to the purpose of a message board. Hell, how about just delete everything and have only 3 threads. All things UofL tidbits, Sports boards tidbits and Random Whatever tidbits.

And we've already been over the fact that some folks just don't read the tidbits thread.
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2016 09:41 PM by Red Alert.)
03-20-2016 09:39 PM
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Farmdude Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
I love the Tidbit thread but I think it really is for news that doesn't need discussion beyond "cool" or "that's Rick". I thought this might be worthy of some repartee. I guess some didn't.
03-20-2016 09:47 PM
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DieHardCards Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
Well everyone has their own idea of what's thread worthy. And I don't think that's a right or wrong thing for anyone. I don't think there is much to say about that kenpom prediction beyond cool. But as you've seen the thread is 27 pages long, its okay to discuss something in that thread if you have something to say. I don't think we've needed a thread every week posting what rank we are in the polls, especially after we self-imposed. That's a tidbit. But to each their own. Tidbits are like a running conversation and I really enjoy that thread and I know most do.

"Ray Harper has been fired from wku. Dude was kind of a tool."
"V.J. King named Virginia player of the year. "
"Kenpom picks us as number one returning team."

All cool, relevant information that I enjoy seeing that doesn't necessarily need it's own thread. I'm not the authority on that. Like I said, everyone has their own judgement. My only qualm ever has always been whether or not it deserves it's own thread....whoever posts it first gets to make that decision. If this was posted as a new thread, I wouldn't post about it in tidbits. And as a small, tightknit community I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the users to read all of the posts. That's why I don't post on the other sights. There will be 5 threads about something.
03-20-2016 10:00 PM
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Red Alert Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
(03-20-2016 10:00 PM)DieHardCards Wrote:  Well everyone has their own idea of what's thread worthy. And I don't think that's a right or wrong thing for anyone. I don't think there is much to say about that kenpom prediction beyond cool. But as you've seen the thread is 27 pages long, its okay to discuss something in that thread if you have something to say. I don't think we've needed a thread every week posting what rank we are in the polls, especially after we self-imposed. That's a tidbit. But to each their own. Tidbits are like a running conversation and I really enjoy that thread and I know most do.

"Ray Harper has been fired from wku. Dude was kind of a tool."
"V.J. King named Virginia player of the year. "
"Kenpom picks us as number one returning team."

All cool, relevant information that I enjoy seeing that doesn't necessarily need it's own thread. I'm not the authority on that. Like I said, everyone has their own judgement. My only qualm ever has always been whether or not it deserves it's own thread....whoever posts it first gets to make that decision. If this was posted as a new thread, I wouldn't post about it in tidbits. And as a small, tightknit community I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the users to read all of the posts. That's why I don't post on the other sights. There will be 5 threads about something.

Good points.
03-20-2016 10:04 PM
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Farmdude Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
Sukup
03-20-2016 10:08 PM
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DieHardCards Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
lol. Did you watch that fucking UNI fiasco FD?
03-20-2016 10:10 PM
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tarheels15 Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Kenpom says....
Can someone check Kenpom's win probability for Northern Iowa with around 35 seconds left? That must have broken win probability percentage
03-20-2016 10:13 PM
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DieHardCards Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
(03-20-2016 10:13 PM)tarheels15 Wrote:  Can someone check Kenpom's win probability for Northern Iowa with around 35 seconds left? That must have broken win probability percentage

+1. I've never had a team not named Louisville (or UK winning a title) negatively impact my mood so much. If I was a UNI fan....I would be fucking irate.
03-20-2016 10:19 PM
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Farmdude Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
(03-20-2016 10:10 PM)DieHardCards Wrote:  lol. Did you watch that fucking UNI fiasco FD?

I watched the meltdown in regulation but couldn't bring myself to watch the inevitable after that. Pitiful.
(This post was last modified: 03-20-2016 10:24 PM by Farmdude.)
03-20-2016 10:23 PM
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DieHardCards Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
(03-20-2016 10:23 PM)Farmdude Wrote:  
(03-20-2016 10:10 PM)DieHardCards Wrote:  lol. Did you watch that fucking UNI fiasco FD?

I watched the meltdown in regulation but couldn't bring myself to watch the inevitable after that. Pitiful.

Your avatar pretty much sums up me when I watched the end of that game.
03-20-2016 10:32 PM
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DieHardCards Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
On topic....

Anas' has an ole girl with him at the WBB game tonight and his swag face makes me ROFL. Game on point. Lol

https://instagram.com/p/BDL8uVSFdf8/
03-20-2016 10:34 PM
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Farmdude Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
I'd hit it. The blonde.
03-20-2016 10:49 PM
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J-Rye_UL Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
(03-20-2016 08:55 PM)Farmdude Wrote:  It's the Cards in 2017 if Nanu comes back.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CollegeBasketba...preseason/
edit: Looks like KenPom is assuming any player projected in the DraftExpress 1st round is gone. That means Ingram/Murray/Skal/Ulis/Allen are all gone. How in the hell would Duke and UK be #2 and #3 after losing all those guys? For the record, Skal has ZERO business in the NBA next season. He could turn into a dominant college player in a couple years, but I'd rather have Mahmoud and Spalding at this point.
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2016 10:37 AM by J-Rye_UL.)
03-21-2016 10:33 AM
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chrislindy Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
Duke and UK already have insane recruiting classes coming in. The joke I read is that Coach K is going to shove Allen out the door to make room for Giles, Tatum, and Jackson. Maybe I even read it here.

In summary, Ulis and Murray get replaced by Fox (#8 overall player) and Monk (#8 overall player in '16 class) and Skal is possibly addition by subtraction (plus Cal has the #4 PF coming in). For Duke, trade Allen for Jackson (#11 overall player), Tatum (#2 overall player) for Ingram, and the #1 overall player (Harry Giles) to compete with Amile Jefferson and/or replace Plumlee.

Viewed another way... we're all geeked about VJ King coming to Louisville next year. UK has 4 recruits ranked higher than him and Duke has 3. Obviously not a guarantee of success, but I'm guessing kenpom has taken the projected performance of those recruits into account when establishing these rankings.
03-21-2016 11:49 AM
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RE: Kenpom says....
I made the case before this season (after the Puerto Rico games) that I'd rather have Damion Lee over all but four 1-and-done recruits in the incoming class. I don't think my perspective would change with the guys coming in next season. Give me a Damion Lee for 1 season over all but 4 or 5 guys. I know our incoming transfer is nowhere near Lee's level - he's probably not even on Trey Lewis' level - but I'd much rather return Onuaku, Mitchell, and Adel than bring the next corp of "potnetial" high level players. Remember what the hype machine thought about Skal at this point last season? I think Barkley would call them idiots.
03-21-2016 02:09 PM
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chrislindy Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
Agree for the most part. Just pointing out that Ken and his ilk have to make SOME assessment of the impact the new guys will have on these programs who rely upon them almost exclusively. As dumb as it may be for his analysis to declare Duke and UK #2/#3 next year, it would actually be dumber to drop them to 160th because they have no returning players at each season's end?
03-21-2016 02:14 PM
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J-Rye_UL Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
Yeah, I'm with you on that point. Where I disagree is with the majority of the country (not anyone on here) who thought signing Damion Lee instead of Antonio Blakeney was a bad thing. Its one of the reasons I have stopped posting on the rivals site. For every reasonable poster, there are 5 who talk out their ass and feed off the hype machine. "Blakeney is a 5* recruit and I've never heard of Damion Lee, therefore Blakeney is better than Lee." It goes along with my point that most "analysts" are going to overvalue the incoming hyped up recruits based off the And1 mixtapes, and undervalue the returning players who have played against D1 competition. Clearly KenPom is not undervaluing our returning guys, but he's also 10x's smarter than the average analyst who gets paid to talk.
03-21-2016 02:48 PM
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Farmdude Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
Exactly why basketball recruiting is not fun to me.
03-21-2016 03:35 PM
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DieHardCards Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
And I think football recruiting is even worse. Recruiting as a whole is a shit show.
03-21-2016 05:32 PM
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RE: Kenpom says....
(03-21-2016 03:35 PM)Farmdude Wrote:  Exactly why basketball recruiting is not fun to me.

Yeah, I pine for the days when you just heard about players going to different schools and then you started assessing how good they are or might be once you have seen them play against college athletes. EVERYTHING is based on potential now and guys have an expectation set for them before they hit campus. The most hardcore fans that follow that stuff are the worst. They start shitting on the players quickly and I just can't stand that.

The Calipari system is a joke. I swear, I'd stop watching Louisville if we had a new team every year. It just doesn't interest me. Turning a guy (maybe two) out every year is one thing, but there are times they have 4 or 5 players gone with only 1 or 2 years.
03-21-2016 05:48 PM
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DieHardCards Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
(03-21-2016 05:48 PM)CardinalJunky Wrote:  
(03-21-2016 03:35 PM)Farmdude Wrote:  Exactly why basketball recruiting is not fun to me.

Yeah, I pine for the days when you just heard about players going to different schools and then you started assessing how good they are or might be once you have seen them play against college athletes. EVERYTHING is based on potential now and guys have an expectation set for them before they hit campus. The most hardcore fans that follow that stuff are the worst. They start shitting on the players quickly and I just can't stand that.

The Calipari system is a joke. I swear, I'd stop watching Louisville if we had a new team every year. It just doesn't interest me. Turning a guy (maybe two) out every year is one thing, but there are times they have 4 or 5 players gone with only 1 or 2 years.

You weren't here for this discussion, so here goes...

How do you feel about Pitino making the done and ones a trend? We have 2 done and ones this year and another one coming in next year. What if we have one or two the next year? I loved this team and I really felt for trey and damion but something was always a little off. I don't see how it's any different.
03-21-2016 05:51 PM
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CardsAllDay13 Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
(03-21-2016 05:51 PM)DieHardCards Wrote:  
(03-21-2016 05:48 PM)CardinalJunky Wrote:  
(03-21-2016 03:35 PM)Farmdude Wrote:  Exactly why basketball recruiting is not fun to me.

Yeah, I pine for the days when you just heard about players going to different schools and then you started assessing how good they are or might be once you have seen them play against college athletes. EVERYTHING is based on potential now and guys have an expectation set for them before they hit campus. The most hardcore fans that follow that stuff are the worst. They start shitting on the players quickly and I just can't stand that.

The Calipari system is a joke. I swear, I'd stop watching Louisville if we had a new team every year. It just doesn't interest me. Turning a guy (maybe two) out every year is one thing, but there are times they have 4 or 5 players gone with only 1 or 2 years.

You weren't here for this discussion, so here goes...

How do you feel about Pitino making the done and ones a trend? We have 2 done and ones this year and another one coming in next year. What if we have one or two the next year? I loved this team and I really felt for trey and damion but something was always a little off. I don't see how it's any different.

The seniors give the best chance of the two groups(freshmen or seniors) to pick up the system more thoroughly, but as you noted there is still something that was a little off. Sure they were more mature and had a much more established game, but even the seasoned veteran may need multiple years to fully grasp, adjust, and gel with the others in the Pitino coached system, especially defensively. I think partly why frosh, unless they are really special or Pitino has no other options, don't very many consecutive minutes at a time.
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2016 05:57 PM by CardsAllDay13.)
03-21-2016 05:56 PM
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DieHardCards Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
(03-21-2016 05:56 PM)CardsAllDay13 Wrote:  
(03-21-2016 05:51 PM)DieHardCards Wrote:  
(03-21-2016 05:48 PM)CardinalJunky Wrote:  
(03-21-2016 03:35 PM)Farmdude Wrote:  Exactly why basketball recruiting is not fun to me.

Yeah, I pine for the days when you just heard about players going to different schools and then you started assessing how good they are or might be once you have seen them play against college athletes. EVERYTHING is based on potential now and guys have an expectation set for them before they hit campus. The most hardcore fans that follow that stuff are the worst. They start shitting on the players quickly and I just can't stand that.

The Calipari system is a joke. I swear, I'd stop watching Louisville if we had a new team every year. It just doesn't interest me. Turning a guy (maybe two) out every year is one thing, but there are times they have 4 or 5 players gone with only 1 or 2 years.

You weren't here for this discussion, so here goes...

How do you feel about Pitino making the done and ones a trend? We have 2 done and ones this year and another one coming in next year. What if we have one or two the next year? I loved this team and I really felt for trey and damion but something was always a little off. I don't see how it's any different.

The seniors give the best chance of the two groups(freshmen or seniors) to pick up the system more thoroughly, but as you noted there is still something that was a little off. Sure they were more mature and had a much more established game, but even the seasoned veteran may need multiple years to fully grasp, adjust, and gel with the others in the Pitino coached system, especially defensively. I think partly why frosh, unless they are really special or Pitino has no other options, don't very many consecutive minutes at a time.

These were smart, well-spoken mature guys and I appreciate that over one and dones. However, we just didn't get a chance to know them.
03-21-2016 06:03 PM
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Farmdude Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
Something is always a bit off. Our CH team had a lot off even in the 1st 16 mins of the 1st half of the CH game. We saw the potential in this team right out of the gate. Through ups and downs most were convinced that we had the goods to have a say in who won it all.
03-21-2016 06:20 PM
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CardsAllDay13 Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
Personally, I guess I really don't care as long as they are good players, create a good team that gels both with each other (good chemistry) and with the fans (fans can grow to with and get a chance to know them), wins, and can have sustainable success. Most importantly (apparently it has to be stated nowadays) no hookers. I think that a hybrid of this could work, but I feel like you have the best chances of success with groups of guys who have been able to play together for more than 1 season. Just my opinion.
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2016 06:40 PM by CardsAllDay13.)
03-21-2016 06:38 PM
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RE: Kenpom says....
This years team needed Lee and Lewis, so I didn't think it was a big deal to go after them. Moving forward, I'd rather see that recruiting method used for depth instead of having to go out and find players that will have to perform at a very high level for the program to succeed. Hopefully this season was just a speed bump in how the team was constructed (lots of youth, no proven returning scorer). I would imagine it's not as difficult for a 5th year guy to "get" Pitino's system as it is for a freshman, but I have a feeling that Lee/Lewis may be exceptions rather than the rule on 5th year players.

I think there is a limit to how many a team can get (2?), so I can't see it being a huge part of recruiting going forward, or maybe it will be. I prefer to see guys develop. It's part of the enjoyment of following a team for me, but most sports are starting pass me by as I get older, so I don't figure Louisville basketball should be any different.
03-22-2016 08:15 AM
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chrislindy Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Kenpom says....
A full roster can only have 11 scholarship players, so 2 grad transfers is 73% of the incoming class in an average year. While it wasn't Lee/Lewis' fault, what happened this year is essentially the case study for adverse outcomes of such a strategy. By failing to get to the post-season, we have sacrificed a year of roster building and - in conjunction with the early departures/transfers - screwed up the balance in our classes. I wrote this in another thread and won't repeat here, but we have a pretty sad upper class coming back next year and too many question marks for an elite Power 5 school to dismiss from the rotation. Other than Onuaku, do we trust any of our juniors or seniors next year to contribute in a meaningful way? Maybe Snider? MAYBE Mathiang?

So it's up to the freshman class that - by bringing in Lee & Lewis - did not get full run this season to take over the scoring load and carry the team next year. Mitchell and Adel look promising, but they only saw a combined 31 mpg on the floor this year. We all have optimism that this team will be very good next year, but it's just that: optimism. If we were willing to take a step back this past year and let those guys take their lumps and earn more substantial battle scars, wouldn't 2016-2017 be that much more promising?

Going back to Lee/Lewis and comparing to freshman one-and-dones. Again, without the postseason success, grad transfers are a bigger bust than one-and-dones because their failures have no opportunity for redemption. At least with a freshman who fails, there is the chance of him returning to further hone his skills and make some noise in March. If future grad transfers come here and are busts, that is still their only shot. There is no next year like Cal can get from guys like the Harrison twins, Terrence Jones (critical to the 2012 title team), Cauley-Stein, etc.

I'm not lobbying to go after one-and-done HS prospects, mind you. Just pointing out that grad transfers can and likely will be an even bigger risk in those situations where they don't mesh with the rest of the team, aren't as good as Pitino thought, or for whatever reason just don't translate to wins and postseason success.
03-22-2016 08:32 AM
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Post: #33
RE: Kenpom says....
I'm guessing that it is rare that a frosh would average more than 16 mins for Pitino. Also Adel had an injury that slowed his learning curve.
03-22-2016 09:17 AM
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J-Rye_UL Offline
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RE: Kenpom says....
(03-22-2016 08:32 AM)chrislindy Wrote:  A full roster can only have 11 scholarship players, so 2 grad transfers is 73% of the incoming class in an average year. While it wasn't Lee/Lewis' fault, what happened this year is essentially the case study for adverse outcomes of such a strategy. By failing to get to the post-season, we have sacrificed a year of roster building and - in conjunction with the early departures/transfers - screwed up the balance in our classes. I wrote this in another thread and won't repeat here, but we have a pretty sad upper class coming back next year and too many question marks for an elite Power 5 school to dismiss from the rotation. Other than Onuaku, do we trust any of our juniors or seniors next year to contribute in a meaningful way? Maybe Snider? MAYBE Mathiang?

So it's up to the freshman class that - by bringing in Lee & Lewis - did not get full run this season to take over the scoring load and carry the team next year. Mitchell and Adel look promising, but they only saw a combined 31 mpg on the floor this year. We all have optimism that this team will be very good next year, but it's just that: optimism. If we were willing to take a step back this past year and let those guys take their lumps and earn more substantial battle scars, wouldn't 2016-2017 be that much more promising?

Going back to Lee/Lewis and comparing to freshman one-and-dones. Again, without the postseason success, grad transfers are a bigger bust than one-and-dones because their failures have no opportunity for redemption. At least with a freshman who fails, there is the chance of him returning to further hone his skills and make some noise in March. If future grad transfers come here and are busts, that is still their only shot. There is no next year like Cal can get from guys like the Harrison twins, Terrence Jones (critical to the 2012 title team), Cauley-Stein, etc.

I'm not lobbying to go after one-and-done HS prospects, mind you. Just pointing out that grad transfers can and likely will be an even bigger risk in those situations where they don't mesh with the rest of the team, aren't as good as Pitino thought, or for whatever reason just don't translate to wins and postseason success.
This is what the college game is today. We should've had Harrell as a senior this year, and Rozier as a senior next year. Not to mention all the guys that transferred out for what I believe is a weak work ethic and feeling of entitlement. And still, look at the success Pitino is having. Look at the development of Michell, Adel, Spalding, Snider, Mahmoud, Onuaku, and even Stockman in the last 5 months. It's been impressive, and I see no reason to think their development has peaked given Pitinos track record. I'm not a fan of resorting to grad transfers in the recruiting game, but there's no such thing as a 4 year contributor anymore. They're either good early and leave early, or they ride pine for a season or two then emerge as upperclassmen. Pitino has a great mix of both scenarios for next season.
(This post was last modified: 03-22-2016 09:59 AM by J-Rye_UL.)
03-22-2016 09:58 AM
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CardsAllDay13 Offline
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Post: #35
RE: Kenpom says....
(03-22-2016 09:17 AM)Farmdude Wrote:  I'm guessing that it is rare that a frosh would average more than 16 mins for Pitino. Also Adel had an injury that slowed his learning curve.


I can probably count them on one or two hands. At least for his tenure here.

Off the top of my head:

Chane maybe.
Caracter maybe?
T-will maybe?
Sosa maybe?
Tello maybe?
Smardo?
Maybe Q too?

solely what i can remember....haven't looked at actual stats
(This post was last modified: 03-22-2016 10:03 AM by CardsAllDay13.)
03-22-2016 10:00 AM
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chrislindy Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Kenpom says....
(03-22-2016 09:58 AM)J-Rye_UL Wrote:  This is what the college game is today. We should've had Harrell as a senior this year, and Rozier as a senior next year. Not to mention all the guys that transferred out for what I believe is a weak work ethic and feeling of entitlement. And still, look at the success Pitino is having. Look at the development of Michell, Adel, Spalding, Snider, Mahmoud, Onuaku, and even Stockman in the last 5 months. It's been impressive, and I see no reason to think their development has peaked given Pitinos track record. I'm not a fan of resorting to grad transfers in the recruiting game, but there's no such thing as a 4 year contributor anymore. They're either good early and leave early, or they ride pine for a season or two then emerge as upperclassmen. Pitino has a great mix of both scenarios for next season.

Acknowledged and OK with everything you point out. Just don't like grad transfers being our bridge/band-aid when those departures and projects conspire to leave us in a one-year lurch.
03-22-2016 10:29 AM
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Farmdude Offline
That's sure a big pickle
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Post: #37
RE: Kenpom says....
(03-22-2016 10:00 AM)CardsAllDay13 Wrote:  
(03-22-2016 09:17 AM)Farmdude Wrote:  I'm guessing that it is rare that a frosh would average more than 16 mins for Pitino. Also Adel had an injury that slowed his learning curve.


I can probably count them on one or two hands. At least for his tenure here.

Off the top of my head:

Chane maybe.
Caracter maybe?
T-will maybe?
Sosa maybe?
Tello maybe?
Smardo?
Maybe Q too?

solely what i can remember....haven't looked at actual stats

UL site only listing top 5 in mins/gm played.

Donovan Mitchell avg. 19.1 mins this year. Making him Top 5 in mins this year.
Q avg less than 19 not Top 5.

You can look up the rest if you wish.
03-22-2016 10:41 AM
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chrislindy Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Kenpom says....
Tello and Samardo almost certainly would have been 20+ mpg (they were starters at their spots for the entire year). Would guess Garcia would make the list as well... that was my first year watching UofL in any capacity, but I know he was essentially the first guy off the bench if not the starter his freshman season.

2002-2003
Garcia got 22
Dean got 23 (did not realize he played so much)

2004-2005
Tello got 27mpg.

2005-2006
T-Will wound up 24 mpg.
McGee got 20. *shudder*

2006-2007
Sosa played 25 a night in his freshman season
Jerry Smith played 20 mpg
Earl Clark was right at 16

2008-2009
Samardo played 25 mpg

2010-2011
Gorgui just missed (15.6mpg)

2011-2012
Chane got 26mpg

2012-2013
Montrezl got 16.2 mpg

2013-2014
Terry got nearly 19mpg

2014-2015
Q got 16mpg
Onuaku got 18mpg.
03-22-2016 11:35 AM
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Farmdude Offline
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Post: #39
RE: Kenpom says....
So, there really wasn't anything different about the playing time the frosh got this year.
03-22-2016 12:55 PM
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CardsAllDay13 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Kenpom says....
ok so freshmen get plenty of minutes if they are good enough / if we have no one else at that position.
03-22-2016 01:04 PM
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