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Draft Value Rankings
chrislindy Offline
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Post: #1
Draft Value Rankings
Thought I would mess with the pick deviations between the two divisions and see what interesting findings came through. Below are the draft value summaries. There are two seperate sets of data which show value rankings and the number of value picks made by each program. Definitions for the fields are as follows:

Total Value: The sum of the total number of picks your 10 players were selected before or after they were selected in the other league. A positive value means that your players, overall, were selected later in your draft than in the other draft. For the purposes of this calculation, any player drafted in one league but not another was assigned a draft position of 81 in the league he went unselected.

Total Value (6): Same as above, but looking only at your first 6 selections, aka your anticipated Starting Lineup.

Value Picks: Of your 10 selections, the number of players who you chose later in your draft than were selected in the other draft.

You will notice as well that there is a CAPPED and UNCAPPED version of these rankings. To attempt to minimize the impact or benefit of an obsessive reach, the CAPPED rankings limited a score (+ or -) to an absolute value of 20. So for example, Sean Obi - who was drafted 30th in the Atlantic but undrafted in the Coastal - would have an uncapped value of -51 to the Dragons. In the CAPPED rankings, this hit to the Dragons overall draft value measure was reset at -20 so that the reach on Obi would not obliterate the value of any other picks made by the team.

Without further ado, here are the league Draft Value Rankings.

   

   
10-08-2015 09:53 PM
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tarheels15 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Draft Value Rankings
I just can't comprehend this for some reason. Do you want to be + or - in this.
10-08-2015 09:56 PM
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chrislindy Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Draft Value Rankings
You want to be +. That means you selected the player later on in your own draft than he was selected in the other draft.
10-08-2015 10:10 PM
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chrislindy Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Draft Value Rankings
Also, I have one typo in the Value Picks field. The Kitty Cats had 8 value picks in his draft, not 2.
10-08-2015 10:11 PM
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FrozenGlacier Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Draft Value Rankings
Just curious if you know off hand. How did my capped # end up more negative than the uncapped #?
10-08-2015 10:17 PM
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chrislindy Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Draft Value Rankings
You had three capped values, two that helped and one that hurt your overall score.

Chase Jeter - Selected 47th by you, but 21st in the Coastal (+26)
Kamari Murphy - Selected 50th by you, but undrafted in the Coastal (-31)
Deng Adel - Selected 79th by you, but 53rd in the Coastal (+26)

By capping each of those, you lose a net positive of 1 (+6 + 6 - 11) on your total score and lose a +6 in your starting lineup as only Jeter was among your first six picks.
10-08-2015 10:40 PM
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J-Rye_UL Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Draft Value Rankings
Here's a list of the top 10 players with the widest margin who were taken in both drafts
  1. Chase Jeter - 26
  2. Deng Adel - 26
  3. Eli Carter - 25
  4. Seth Allen - 25
  5. Amile Jefferson - 23
  6. Theo Pinson - 22
  7. DaJuan Coleman - 21
  8. Davon Reed - 18
  9. Justin Jackson - 18
  10. Dwayne Bacon - 17


Eli Carter was a player I reached hard for in the Atlantic. First thought, looking at where he was drafted in the Coastal had me dissappointed that I could have held out and got him in a later round. But then there's Seth Allen. He was actually drafted earlier in the Coastal than I drafted Eli Carter in the Atlantic. That makes me feel a little better knowing the quality transfers were on the radar. And Trey Lewis was taken just 5 spots after I took Carter in the Atlantic. Maybe not as big of a reach as I initially thought.
10-09-2015 07:31 AM
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jhmoss1812 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Draft Value Rankings
I probably reached for Seth Allen but I think he could be a Erick Green type scorer for VT. This is my first college fantasy basketball draft so I probably made a lot of mistakes. I didn't have a list of ranked players or anything like that. When it was my turn, I went and found a player that I liked. In all honesty, I didn't even know all of the scoring categories until Round 4 lol.
10-09-2015 07:43 AM
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nicklindy Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Draft Value Rankings
My bro is an actuary so I don't even try and understand this crap.
10-09-2015 11:59 AM
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needabuzz Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Draft Value Rankings
Looks like I was the person that took the guy too early twice. Oh well I hope that it all ends up gong good.
10-09-2015 02:00 PM
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needabuzz Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Draft Value Rankings
My only question is how does this compare to final results? In the end you are just comparing draft positions of players. I don't see how that proves which is better? Do you have this data from last year or previous years that you can compare to final results?
10-09-2015 02:08 PM
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needabuzz Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Draft Value Rankings
It does suck to be on the losing end of this on two of the top 3 though.
10-09-2015 02:21 PM
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ULismyhothot Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Draft Value Rankings
Buzz, there's too small a sample size for this to be scientific proof of an average draft position like you see in other fantasy sports; it's just for funsies mostly. A college player draft will always yield variance like this and your drafting strategy might be "obvious" but that has its own merits.
10-09-2015 02:23 PM
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tarheels15 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Draft Value Rankings
Exactly nearly impossible to compare results by years, and draw any type of meaningful statistical correlation. College basketball varies so much by year.
10-09-2015 02:30 PM
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J-Rye_UL Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Draft Value Rankings
Here's the numbers from last season. 3 of the top 4 were right. But that 4th member at the top was way off - Fuglys predicted 13th and finished 3rd.

(10-13-2014 09:30 PM)nicklindy Wrote:  Last nerd statement of the day - These numbers stand out to me more as a good layout for preseason rankings and what is funny is that our historically strong teams are at the top of these rankings. The numbers don't take into account those who chose players the other league did not.

Team/pick differential (- means the other league chose the team's picks lower)
Freeballers +68 (all ten picks taken by Atlantic)
Blanks +67 (only team to have all 10 picks taken by Coastal)
Empire +49
JDRYAN +39
Dean +33
Cassell +20
DHC +18
Queen +8
Dozen +8
Wheats -16
Glacier -18
HotHot -40
Fuglys -47
Medium Maint -53
Buzz -58
True Brew -73
(This post was last modified: 10-09-2015 04:21 PM by J-Rye_UL.)
10-09-2015 04:19 PM
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FrozenGlacier Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Draft Value Rankings
So if you took more picks that went earlier in the other draft....couldn't that just mean the other draft wasn't smart. I would think having a # closer to 0 shows your picks were safer and the further away from zero means you took more risks or the other draft did.
10-09-2015 04:58 PM
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J-Rye_UL Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Draft Value Rankings
You want the highest positive number possible. If I got Marcus Paige with the 80th pick, I'd get +79 points for that pick. Higher number generally indicates a steal, or a great value pick at that position in the draft
10-09-2015 05:51 PM
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FrozenGlacier Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Draft Value Rankings
Generally, but it could just mean someone went crazy in the other draft. Say someone in the coastal took Obi 80, they would have got a +40? That's not a steal, that could easily mean the person in the Atlantic went a little crazy and picked wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early. I get the generality, but right now it's too early to tell which way some of these numbers mean.
(This post was last modified: 10-09-2015 06:02 PM by FrozenGlacier.)
10-09-2015 06:01 PM
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HarveyGlass Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Draft Value Rankings
Fuglys are amazing.

"The dream lives on." - Howard Schnellenberger
10-09-2015 06:18 PM
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J-Rye_UL Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Draft Value Rankings
(10-09-2015 06:01 PM)FrozenGlacier Wrote:  Generally, but it could just mean someone went crazy in the other draft. Say someone in the coastal took Obi 80, they would have got a +40? That's not a steal, that could easily mean the person in the Atlantic went a little crazy and picked wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early. I get the generality, but right now it's too early to tell which way some of these numbers mean.
Welcome to statistics
10-09-2015 07:29 PM
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CardsAllDay13 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Draft Value Rankings
(10-09-2015 06:18 PM)HarveyGlass Wrote:  Fuglys are amazing.


lol
10-09-2015 07:32 PM
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FrozenGlacier Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Draft Value Rankings
(10-09-2015 07:29 PM)J-Rye_UL Wrote:  
(10-09-2015 06:01 PM)FrozenGlacier Wrote:  Generally, but it could just mean someone went crazy in the other draft. Say someone in the coastal took Obi 80, they would have got a +40? That's not a steal, that could easily mean the person in the Atlantic went a little crazy and picked wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too early. I get the generality, but right now it's too early to tell which way some of these numbers mean.
Welcome to statistics

I know statistics.....just pointing out the alternative view point.
10-09-2015 07:32 PM
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Deanfor3! Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Draft Value Rankings
I get it Obi was a bad pick, I only see it in every thread. Its one out of ten draft picks, I still like my team though. Just gonna have to work the waiver wire early this year.
(This post was last modified: 10-09-2015 08:38 PM by Deanfor3!.)
10-09-2015 08:38 PM
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HarveyGlass Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Draft Value Rankings
Also, the Bum Fuglys have ceased to exist.

"The dream lives on." - Howard Schnellenberger
10-10-2015 08:29 AM
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